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 848 
 WTNT42 KNHC 230852
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016
 
 The cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours
 ago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still
 located on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is
 more symmetric, and the outflow is better defined.  Tonight's
 upward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force
 Hurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated
 minimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous
 reports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb.  A
 NOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level
 wind of 61 kt.  These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.
 
 Karl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of
 days while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.
 After that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic
 mid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful
 extratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a
 much larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar
 to the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone
 in the short term based on the initial intensity and the current
 organization trend.
 
 Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of
 325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of
 the subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to
 turn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl
 is forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow
 ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a
 sharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The
 new track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer
 to Bermuda in about 24 hours.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of
 the tightly packed model guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 27.9N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 31.5N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 37.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  26/0600Z 48.0N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
 
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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