Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 347 
 WTNT42 KNHC 200242
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016
 
 Karl is a little better organized tonight.  An area of deep
 convection has been persisting during the past several hours, and
 microwave images indicate that the center is located near the
 southwestern edge of the convective area.  The initial wind speed
 is nudged upward to 40 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak
 classifications from TAFB and SAB.
 
 Karl is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and it is being steered
 by the flow on the south side of a high pressure system over the
 subtropical Atlantic.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move near
 the southwestern periphery of the high in a couple of days and then
 head toward a pronounced weakness in the ridge over the western
 Atlantic. This change in the steering pattern should result in Karl
 turning northwestward in about 48 hours, with a gradual turn to the
 north and northeast expected in 4 to 5 days.  Although the models
 agree on the overall theme, there is a fair amount of spread in the
 guidance associated with where and when Karl begins to recurve. The
 NHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance
 envelope, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids.
 
 The vertical wind shear that has been affecting Karl for the past
 several days appears to be letting up some, and the SHIPS model
 suggests that shear should be generally light during the next 5
 days. In addition, Karl is currently over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
 and it is expected to move over even warmer waters throughout the
 forecast period.  The one unfavorable parameter for intensification
 is the dry mid-level environment surrounding the tropical storm,
 but some of the guidance suggests that the air mass could moisten
 ahead of the system later this week. Based on these large scale
 conditions, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or
 so, followed by a faster rate of intensification thereafter.  The
 NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is on
 the conservative side of the guidance at the longer range forecast
 points.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0300Z 19.7N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  20/1200Z 20.4N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  21/0000Z 21.3N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  21/1200Z 22.4N  57.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  22/0000Z 23.9N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  23/0000Z 26.7N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  24/0000Z 29.5N  64.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  25/0000Z 32.3N  60.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for KARL

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman