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 045 
 WTNT42 KNHC 190238
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016
 
 Karl is a poorly organized tropical storm.  Satellite data indicate
 that the low-level center is exposed to the southwest of a few
 patches of deep convection.  The initial intensity is again held at
 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak
 classification from TAFB.  The cyclone continues to struggle in an
 environment of southwesterly shear and dry air.  In fact, total
 precipitable water imagery shows dry air wrapping around the west
 and south sides of the circulation.  The models indicate that the
 shear should lower on Monday, and remain relatively light during the
 next several days.  Since Karl is expected to track over
 progressively warmer waters, between 28-30 deg C, and move into a
 more conducive atmospheric environment, strengthening seems likely.
 The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,
 but it is a touch lower at the 12-h point given the current poor
 initial structure of Karl. This forecast is in best agreement with
 the SHIPS model.
 
 The system is moving westward at 13 kt, and that general motion
 should continue for the next 12-24 hours as Karl remains on the
 south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  A
 west-northwestward motion is expected to begin by Monday night,
 followed by a turn to the northwest by mid-week when the cyclone
 moves toward a weakness in the ridge.  Although the models
 agree on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by
 the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is slightly
 faster than the model consensus, giving a little more weight to the
 GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0300Z 18.3N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  19/1200Z 18.5N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  20/0000Z 19.1N  50.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  20/1200Z 19.8N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/0000Z 20.7N  55.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  22/0000Z 23.1N  60.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  23/0000Z 26.5N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  24/0000Z 28.8N  66.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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