691 
 WTNT42 KNHC 180841
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 500 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016
 
 The structure of Karl has kept a similar appearance for some time
 now with a small area of convection flaring up and down near the
 center, with a larger mass of thunderstorms following the center in
 the northeastern quadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt
 using the last TAFB satellite estimate.
 
 Karl's disorganized low-level structure will likely prevent much
 intensification in the short term.  However the environment
 near the tropical cyclone is likely to become conducive for
 strengthening within a couple of days due to lower shear, slightly
 more moisture, and warmer sea surface temperatures.  The intensity
 guidance is very similar to the previous model cycle, and only
 small changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed forecast.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 255/10.  A large subtropical high
 over the central Atlantic should provide a fairly well-defined
 steering current for the tropical storm over the next several days.
 This ridge will likely turn Karl to the west later today and to the
 west-northwest by early Tuesday through the end of the period.
 Other than a small westward adjustment through 72 hours, the new
 NHC track is similar to the previous one, near a model consensus
 favoring the faster GFS/ECMWF solutions.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 17.7N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 17.7N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 18.0N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 18.6N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 19.3N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 21.5N  57.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  22/0600Z 23.9N  62.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  23/0600Z 26.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake