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 825 
 WTNT42 KNHC 150255
 TCDAT2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016
 
 The convective pattern of the depression has improved some since the
 previous advisory with short curved bands having developed in all
 quadrants. In addition, the upper-level outflow has also improved
 and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range
 from 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, 37-41 kt in recent AMSU estimates, and
 an ADT value of T2.8/41 kt. Due to the lack of persistent inner-core
 convection, the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt.
 
 The initial motion is 280/12 kt.  A deep-layer ridge to the north
 of the cyclone is expected steer the system west-northwestward and
 then westward during the next 48 hours, accompanied by some
 decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens slightly. By 72
 hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to build southward slightly,
 forcing the cyclone on a west-southwestward track over warmer
 waters. The new forecast track is basically just an update of the
 previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models.
 
 Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours or so. After
 that, the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly
 vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough to the
 north of the cyclone.  The new intensity forecast continues to show
 the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. On days 4
 and 5, some slight re-strengthening is expected when the cyclone
 moves over SSTs near 28 deg C and into more favorable mid- and
 upper-level environments as shown by the ECMWF and UKMET models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 17.6N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 17.8N  29.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 18.0N  31.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 18.1N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 17.9N  36.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 17.5N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 17.4N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  20/0000Z 17.9N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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