652 
 WTNT42 KNHC 240847
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
  
 KARL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH COMPLETED
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
 SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A POORLY
 ORGANIZED...RAGGED...LOW CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE ABSENT
 OF DEEP CONVECTION...ALL INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL PHASE OF
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DOWN TO
 55 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A
 GENEROUS 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS AN ACCELERATING 020/26. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE
 MOVING IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
 IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG
 UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. KARL IS
 EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE
 BRITISH ISLES BY DAY 3.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0900Z 40.8N  41.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     24/1800Z 44.5N  40.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     25/0600Z 49.4N  37.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     25/1800Z 54.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     26/0600Z 59.2N  19.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
 $$