373 
 WTNT42 KNHC 231441
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
  
 THE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23.  THE TRACK FORECAST
 SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD
 ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
 AS IT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. 
 THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A
 LITTLE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24
 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND
 KARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.
  
 THE EYE FEATURE IS QUITE RAGGED AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE
 WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
 INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR BELOW
 HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
 MODEL...BUT WEAKENING COULD BE EVEN FASTER.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/1500Z 33.8N  43.8W   105 KT
  12HR VT     24/0000Z 37.6N  42.4W    95 KT
  24HR VT     24/1200Z 42.9N  41.8W    85 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     25/0000Z 47.4N  40.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     26/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
  
 $$