035
WTNT42 KNHC 222029
TCDAT2
HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. VISIBLE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY SHOWED A LARGE EYE BUT THIS IS NOW
BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED. KARL SHOULD DECAY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
KARL HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
020/14...AND A GENERAL MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL
KARL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTERTHAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL TURN EASTWARD WITH THE
HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDL CONSENSUS.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 28.2N 48.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 30.1N 47.2W 85 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 33.7N 44.6W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/0600Z 38.7N 42.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/1800Z 44.0N 42.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 25/1800Z 53.0N 37.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1800Z 60.0N 24.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/1800Z...NEAR GREENWICH MERIDIAN
$$
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