200 
 WTNT22 KNHC 210229
 TCMAT2
 HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
 0300Z TUE SEP 21 2004
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  47.4W AT 21/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
 64 KT....... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
 50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 125SW 175NW.
 12 FT SEAS..275NE 275SE 275SW 275NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  47.4W AT 21/0300Z
 AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N  47.1W
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.1N  48.5W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N  49.8W
 MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.4N  50.1W
 MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
 64 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 28.5N  49.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 36.0N  45.0W
 MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 150NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 44.0N  44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  47.4W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
  
 FORECASTER BERG/JARVINEN
  
  
 $$