284 
 WTNT22 KNHC 170830
 TCMAT2
 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122004
 0900Z FRI SEP 17 2004
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  35.3W AT 17/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
 50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  35.3W AT 17/0900Z
 AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  34.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N  36.8W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N  38.8W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.8N  40.6W
 MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.7N  42.2W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...115NE 115SE 115SW 115NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N  44.8W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 50 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  70NW.
 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N  46.3W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N  47.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  35.3W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
  
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
  
 $$