953 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 242052
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014
 
 Strong vertical shear being induced by an upper-level high centered
 northeast of Karina continues to weaken the tropical storm.  Deep
 convection continues in association with the cyclone, though it is
 occurring only over the western semi-circle and it has decreased in
 areal extent.  In fact, in the last few visible images, the
 low-level center is popping out from underneath the thinning cirrus
 overcast.  A "bulls-eye" ASCAT-B hit at 1802Z indicated a peak
 surface wind between 40 and 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set
 at 45 kt.  Strong vertical shear should continue to afflict Karina,
 as the outflow from major hurricane Marie will soon begin to reach
 the tropical storm.  The combination of high vertical shear,
 marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to a gradual
 weakening of the tropical cyclone.  Karina should become a remnant
 low in about two days. However, the strong shear and mediocre
 thermodynamics may lead to remnant low status earlier. The intensity
 forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical
 models, and is a bit lower than that from the previous advisory due
 to the weakened initial condition of the cyclone.
 
 The aforementioned ASCAT-B pass confirmed the rather small
 tropical-storm-force wind radii of Karina.  A gradual reduction in
 the cyclone's size is anticipated as the cyclone winds down.
 
 Karina is being steered eastward at 8 kt around the large
 circulation of post-tropical cyclone Lowell to its north-northeast.
 The center of the system is now well known, due to the ASCAT-B pass
 and the visible appearance of the low-level center. The steering
 influence of Lowell will diminish by tomorrow as the distance
 between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing
 down and turning gradually to the east-southeast.  In about 36
 hours, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching
 large and powerful Marie. Karina or its remnant low should be
 accelerated toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie
 between two and three days.  The forecast track is based upon the
 TVCN multi-model track consensus technique and is slightly faster
 than that issued in the previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/2100Z 17.8N 130.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  25/0600Z 17.7N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  26/1800Z 16.5N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea