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 800 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 232047
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
 
 The eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and
 deep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the
 cyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still
 yields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt.  Since that time,
 the cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate,
 suggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be
 occurring.  The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C
 isotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in
 total precipitable water imagery.  The influence of these
 unfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to
 remnant low status in 3 to 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is
 again an update of the previous one and lies close to the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 Karina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow
 to the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is
 055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing
 Karina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease
 in forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger
 circulation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days.  However, there is
 still some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell,
 which would result in a west-northwestward motion.  Since most of
 the track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the
 NHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone
 becoming stationary at days 3 and 4.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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