142 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 230846
 TCDEP1
 
 HURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014
 
 Karina continues to show signs of an intermittent eye in shortwave
 and longwave IR imagery.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
 UW-CIMSS are unchanged since the last advisory, and several recent
 AMSU passes have indicated an intensity of 70 to 75 kt.  Based on
 these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.  No significant
 change to the intensity forecast was made.  Karina continues to
 march steadily toward cooler SSTs and a subsequently more stable
 thermodynamic environment.  After 36 hours, the cyclone should
 encounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment and higher
 shear, resulting in an increased rate of weakening.  Most of the
 dynamical models forecast that the low- and mid-level centers will
 become decoupled within 96 hours, but that the low-level center
 will persist for a day or two after that.
 
 The hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt. There
 remains a high degree of confidence for the first 48 hours of the
 track forecast. A general east-northeastward track is still
 expected while Karina interacts with the circulation of Lowell.
 After Lowell passes to the north, there is a considerable amount of
 uncertainty regarding the track of Karina and its remnants.  Not
 only is the model spread very large, but the run-to-run consistency
 has been remarkably poor. For instance, the 00Z and 18Z GFS 120-h
 forecast positions differ by over 700 nm.  The members of TVCE
 currently support three very distinct scenarios.  The GFS shows
 Karina wrapping around to the north side of Lowell and moving
 rapidly westward. The HWRF and GFDL models show a slower westward
 motion, caused by a mid-level ridge that is forecast to build to the
 east of Lowell. Finally, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Karina
 will be advected southward by the circulation of Marie. The official
 forecast has been shifted slightly northward, in part due to the
 extreme shift of the GFS, but remains closest to the middle ground
 solution of the HWRF and GFDL.  If the models begin to converge on a
 single solution, it may necessitate a larger change to the forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  23/0900Z 16.7N 134.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown