375 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 210838
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014
 
 Karina is being affected by moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear,
 with the low-level center located on the northeastern edge of the
 deep convection.  Subjective and objective T-numbers have decreased
 from 6 hours ago, and a blend of the T-numbers and CI numbers
 supports bringing the maximum winds down to 45 kt.  Water vapor
 imagery shows an expansive area of dry mid-/upper-level air surging
 southward on the west side of Tropical Storm Lowell toward Karina.
 This flow will likely continue to disrupt Karina's structure during
 the next day or so, and drier air may also begin to infiltrate into
 the cyclone's circulation.  In addition, Karina will be moving over
 sub-26C water in about 3 days.  All these factors argue for little
 change in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by weakening
 and degeneration to a remnant low by day 4.  The updated NHC
 intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, mainly
 due to the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the
 intensity consensus.
 
 Recent microwave images suggest that Karina has been drifting
 east-southeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 110/2 kt.
 The cyclone is likely to drift southeastward and east-southeastward
 for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the distance between
 Karina and Lowell will be decreasing, and Karina will respond by
 accelerating northeastward and then northward around the east side
 of Lowell beyond 48 hours.  The track guidance is in good agreement
 on this scenario, and no significant changes from the previous NHC
 forecast were required on this advisory.  Although a 5-day point is
 given, Karina will likely be in the process of becoming absorbed by
 Lowell, and it is possible that a surface center may no longer exist
 at that time.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  21/0900Z 15.6N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg