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 973 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 202048
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014
 
 Karina's cloud pattern has continued to become a little better
 organized today with a mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery
 and increasing convective bands. There are no signs of shear at this
 time since the outflow is fairly symmetric. Based on satellite
 estimates of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, the initial
 intensity is set at 55 knots. As long as Karina remains over warm
 waters and in a weak shear environment, there is a possibility of
 some strengthening, but it is more likely that the storm will
 fluctuate in intensity during the next 24 hours as suggested by most
 of the intensity guidance. After that time, gradual weakening should
 begin as the storm moves over cooler waters.
 
 Karina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequently
 the storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated
 during the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward,
 followed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forward
 speed around the south and east sides of the large circulation of
 Tropical Storm Lowell. The guidance has been very persistent with
 this scenario, and the NHC forecast follows the consensus of the GFS
 and the ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/2100Z 15.7N 136.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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