929 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 200841
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014
 
 Although Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold
 cirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on
 the northeastern edge of the deep convection.  TAFB and SAB Dvorak
 estimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC
 ASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt.  Moderate
 east-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue
 affecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic
 conditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone
 begins gaining some latitude beyond day 3.  The official NHC
 intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast,
 holding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then
 showing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly
 colder water.  This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM
 models, as well as the ICON intensity consensus.
 
 Karina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of
 270/4 kt.  All of the track models now indicate that Karina will
 slow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop
 during the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical
 Storm Lowell's larger circulation.  Karina will then backtrack on
 its past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between
 days 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of
 Lowell.  As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance
 had been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has
 continued.  Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed
 eastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance
 envelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg