910 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 192037
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014
 
 Although Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots,
 visible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous
 circulation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level
 center and the western half of the circulation where stronger
 winds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated
 southeast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist
 west of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots
 until we have more solid evidence of weakening.
 
 The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will
 likely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be
 strong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most
 likely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the
 next 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment.  After that
 time, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward
 by the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the
 cyclone will likely weaken.
 
 Karina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are
 forecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or
 even meander for the next 2 to 3 days.  Then, as Lowell passes to
 the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased
 forward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the
 large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend
 of the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina
 northeastward toward Lowell.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila