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 601 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 181441
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014
 
 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
 the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
 convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
 was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
 pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
 Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
 is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
 the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
 12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
 additional strengthening.
 
 Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
 is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
 will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
 for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
 forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
 Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
 12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
 in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
 motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
 to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
 the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
 much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
 hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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