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 358 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 180850
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014
 
 Deep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the
 last several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the
 low-level center due to persistent shear.  The initial intensity
 remains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the
 latest Dvorak classifications.  The shear is expected to slacken
 some during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to
 restrengthen a little.  However, significant strengthening seems
 unlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west
 while it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures.  The NHC
 intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the
 consensus model IVCN.
 
 Karina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this
 general motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted
 during the next 24 hours.  The storm is likely to drift westward or
 become stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the
 steering currents collapse.  By the end of the forecast period, the
 cyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to
 interact with the large depression to its east.  The new official
 track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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