731 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 152032
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014
 
 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has been gradually
 deteriorating during the day. Microwave data reveal that the center
 continues to be located to the north of a small area of deep
 convection. The upper-level outflow is very limited due to
 northeasterly shear. Consequently, the Dvorak T-numbers have
 continued to decrease, supporting a generous initial intensity of 45
 knots. It appears that Karina will continue within an environment
 unfavorable for strengthening, but not hostile enough to weaken the
 cyclone either. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity
 during the next 5 days, although there is a small possibility of
 slight strengthening beyond 4 days, when the cyclone reaches warmer
 waters. In fact, this is the solution of the HWRF model.
 
 The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots.
 Karina continues to be steered by the flow around a persistent
 subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge
 westward beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Karina to move
 on a more west to west-southwest track with a decrease in forward
 speed. By day 5, Karina will probably begin to meander within a
 very weak steering flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous
 one and follows the trend of the multi-model consensus.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 17.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila