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 702 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 130246
 TCDEP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014
 
 The area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
 Mexico has continued to become better organized this evening with
 convection consolidating near the low-level center along with
 increased banding features.  Since earlier scatterometer data
 indicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets
 the criteria for a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is
 set to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from
 TAFB.
 
 The depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next
 several days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear.  There are
 no obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady
 strengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction
 is above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the
 SHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of
 days.  It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative
 intensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level
 environment predicted by the GFS model verifies.
 
 The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14.  A
 subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build
 westward during the next couple of days, which should cause the
 depression to turn toward the west.  Model guidance is generally in
 good agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to
 the model consensus.  Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
 possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
 and a potential break in the ridge along 130W.  While the former
 feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
 toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
 poleward track.  The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the
 less dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is
 a little northwest of the model consensus at long range.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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