318 
 WTNT22 KNHC 031436
 TCMAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
  
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
  
 NONE.
  
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 * METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 * LAKE MAUREPAS
 * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
  
 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  87.9W AT 03/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
 50 KT....... 60NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT....... 90NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  87.9W AT 03/1500Z
 AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  87.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N  88.7W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.4N  89.4W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N  89.5W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.2N  89.1W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW  40NW.
 34 KT...110NE  90SE  40SW  80NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N  87.0W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N  87.9W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN