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 297 
 WTNT42 KNHC 031438
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013
  
 KAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 OR SO KT OF SHEAR
 ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON SEVERAL BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS IN
 THE 50-55 KT RANGE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. WITH MODERATE SHEAR
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
 BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME
 WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT
 THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE
 NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE
 PERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 4 AND
 ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY DAY 5. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL A RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN 330/10.
 THE TRACK FORECAST REASONINS HAS NOT CHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE
 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL
 MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
 LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO
 THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE LEFT OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. NOTE THAT A STRONGER STORM WOULD
 LIKELY MOVER FARTHER EAST...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE
 LIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK FARTHER WEST.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/1500Z 22.2N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 23.8N  88.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 25.4N  89.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 26.9N  89.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 28.2N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 31.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  96H  07/1200Z 35.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT 
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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