162 
 WTNT22 KNHC 271433
 TCMAT2
 TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007
 1500 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  47.3W AT 27/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
 50 KT.......120NE 100SE  20SW  40NW.
 34 KT.......170NE 140SE  40SW 100NW.
 12 FT SEAS..170NE  80SE  60SW 120NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  47.3W AT 27/1500Z
 AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  46.8W
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.7N  48.7W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT...140NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.0N  50.6W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...140NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N  52.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.0N  53.3W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N  57.0W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.0N  58.5W
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  47.3W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA