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 397 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 070252
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014
 
 Julio has strengthened during the last several hours.  The eye of
 the hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has
 recently become apparent in infrared satellite images.  In addition,
 the convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it
 was earlier today.  The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using
 a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS
 ADT.
 
 The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about
 27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high
 moisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible
 during the overnight hours.   After that time, however, Julio is
 expected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C
 water for the next few days.  These cool waters combined with a
 drier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken.
 
 The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14.  A
 deep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the
 system moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days.
 Beyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in
 showing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough
 moving eastward over the north Pacific.  This change in the
 steering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the
 northwest in 4 to 5 days.  The track guidance has changed little
 this cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the
 previous one.  Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or
 to the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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