188 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050239
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014
 
 Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM AMSR2 microwave
 overpass show that Julio's cloud pattern continues to
 gradually improve. Cold tops of -80 C are now evident in
 association with the developing banding feature south of the center.
 The AMSR2 pass as well as visible imagery also indicated that deep
 convection is now wrapping around the northeast portion of the
 cyclone despite the relatively moderate northeasterly shear.
 However, the Dvorak subjective and ADT objective satellite
 intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory and
 the initial intensity is held at a conservative 50 kt.  No
 significant changes were made to the intensity forecast from the
 previous package.  However, the forecast now shows a peak intensity
 of 90 kt at the 48- and 72-hour time frame to correspond more with
 the SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble.
 
 Julio has continued to move at a swift pace this evening and the
 initial motion is estimated to be 270/14.  A mid-tropospheric ridge
 extending from the southwest United States and Mexico into the
 eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on the same heading and
 at a similar forward speed during the next 4 days. After that time,
 the large-scale models show the western extent of the ridge
 weakening in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching the
 Hawaiian Islands from the northwest.  This change in the steering
 pattern should cause Julio to turn gradually toward the west-
 northwest, and the model guidance has shifted northward late in the
 period on this cycle.  The NHC track forecast is therefore
 adjusted northward, and lies just to the south of the TVCE multi-
 model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 13.5N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 13.7N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 14.2N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 14.7N 130.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 15.2N 133.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 16.0N 138.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts