865 
 WTPA44 PHFO 151436
 TCDCP4
 
 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 500 AM HST FRI AUG 15 2014
  
 JULIO HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A VIIRS DAY-NIGHT IMAGE 
 AT 144 AM STILL SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD VORTEX BUT THE 
 SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR 24 HOURS. JTWC CARRIED 
 A CI NUMBER OF 1.5 WHILE SAB AND PHFO REPORTED THE SYSTEM AS TOO 
 WEAK TO CLASSIFY. I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY TO 30 KT.
 
 THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE NORTH SHEAR CONTINUING AND SEA SURFACE 
 TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
 FARTHER NORTHWEST. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO FUEL 
 THE SYSTEM THE REMNANT OF JULIO CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
 WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS.
 
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANT JULIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER 
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND 72 
 HOURS A TROUGH ALOFT AND A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REMNANT OF 
 JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT LOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE 
 NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 32.4N 157.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  12H  16/0000Z 32.8N 157.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  16/1200Z 33.4N 158.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  17/0000Z 34.0N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/1200Z 34.6N 159.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON