747 
 WTPA44 PHFO 150857
 TCDCP4
 
 TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 1100 PM HST THU AUG 14 2014
  
 JULIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP 
 CONVECTION. CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND JTWC WERE 2.0 WITH A 2.5 FROM 
 PHFO. I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY TO A CONSERVATIVE 40 KT.
 
 THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE NORTH SHEAR CONTINUING AND SEA SURFACE 
 TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES 
 FARTHER NORTH. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO FUEL THE 
 SYSTEM JULIO CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND LOSE ITS 
 TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. JULIO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL 
 DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
 THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JULIO MOVING RATHER SLOWLY OVER 
 THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH...THEN 
 NORTHWEST. BY 72 HOURS A TROUGH ALOFT AND A FRONT WILL BE 
 APPROACHING THE REMNANT OF JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT LOW 
 WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE BEFORE DISSIPATING.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 32.4N 157.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 32.8N 157.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  16/0600Z 33.3N 157.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  16/1800Z 33.7N 157.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  17/0600Z 34.5N 158.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  18/0600Z 38.0N 159.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON