006 
 WTPA44 PHFO 132043
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 1100 AM HST WED AUG 13 2014
  
 JULIO HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF SOME STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING AS IT 
 BEGINS TO TAKE A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. CONVECTION HAD 
 TRENDED DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED AND 
 WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE AGAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE 
 1730 UTC DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.0 FROM HFO 
 AND JTWC...THOUGH HFO WAS CONSTRAINED...AND SAB REPORTED A 4.5. 
 CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY WAS AT 5.0...AND CIMSS SATCON AT 1543 
 UTC ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 71 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS 
 BEEN SOME SLIGHT DETERIORATION IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING 
 THE PAST HOUR...THE OFFICIAL CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 70 
 KT.
 
 THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...AS STEADY 
 WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY. JULIO IS CURRENTLY FLANKED BY 
 A PAIR OF DEEP RIDGES TO THE WEST AND EAST...WHILE A BROAD AND DEEP 
 TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. OUTFLOW IS ALREADY 
 BECOMING RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND AS THE TROUGH 
 DROPS CLOSER TODAY...NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO 
 INCREASE RAPIDLY TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY NIGHTFALL. AS A RESULT... 
 STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME RANGE. BEYOND 
 24 HOURS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX AS THE TROUGH PASSES 
 BY TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO 
 INDUCE FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL APPROACH 
 THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD 
 OCCUR. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INTERACTION WITH TWO 
 MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN USUAL. THE 
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE REGARDING THE WEAKENING IN 
 THE SHORT TERM AND IS THEN ESSENTIALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE 
 ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE NORTHERLY 330/6KT. THIS TURN TOWARD THE 
 NORTH WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A PAIR OF DEEP RIDGES SIT NEARLY DUE 
 WEST AND EAST OF JULIO. AS JULIO INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP TROUGH...A 
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE 
 NORTH IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS JULIO IS INFLUENCED BY A DEVELOPING 
 LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY 
 CLUSTERED THROUGH 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SPREAD AS THE 
 INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS HANDLE THE INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING TROUGHS 
 DIFFERENTLY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  13/2100Z 30.8N 159.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  14/0600Z 31.4N 159.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  14/1800Z 32.1N 158.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  15/0600Z 32.8N 157.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  15/1800Z 33.6N 156.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  16/1800Z 35.1N 157.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  17/1800Z 37.7N 157.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER WROE