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 650 
 WTPA44 PHFO 112035
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2014
 
 JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE 
 MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE CENTER OF JULIO 
 OVERNIGHT...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. 
 HOWEVER...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT AROUND 15Z INDICATED THAT JULIO 
 CONTINUED TO HAVE AN EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE 
 NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OBSCURE THE LOW 
 LEVEL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY...EXTRAPOLATION FROM 
 THE SSMIS FIX POSITION WAS USED TO HELP WITH THE 18Z FIX POSITION. 
 THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS T 
 NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC AND 4.5 FROM CPHC. THUS 
 WE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE 4.0 FOR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY 
 WHICH KEEPS JULIO AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
 
 JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN 
 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS 
 EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS JULIO 
 GAINS LATITUDE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND 
 THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS JULIO BEGINS TO COME UNDER 
 THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS.  
 
 THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 5 DAY 
 FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO. THIS IS 
 MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE SST VALUES 
 ALONG ITS TRACK REMAIN THE SAME OR WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT DAY 
 3. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 3 AS WESTERLY SHEAR 
 INCREASES AND SST VALUES ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK LOWER 
 SIGNIFICANTLY. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/2100Z 27.6N 155.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  12/0600Z 28.3N 156.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  12/1800Z 29.3N 157.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  13/0600Z 30.3N 158.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  13/1800Z 31.4N 158.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  14/1800Z 33.5N 157.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  15/1800Z 35.4N 155.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  16/1800Z 37.6N 151.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BURKE
  
 
 
 
 
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