650
WTPA44 PHFO 112035
TCDCP4
HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST MON AUG 11 2014
JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING THE CENTER OF JULIO
OVERNIGHT...IT WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT AROUND 15Z INDICATED THAT JULIO
CONTINUED TO HAVE AN EYE FEATURE WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WITH HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO OBSCURE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER ON EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY...EXTRAPOLATION FROM
THE SSMIS FIX POSITION WAS USED TO HELP WITH THE 18Z FIX POSITION.
THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES HAS T
NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC AND 4.5 FROM CPHC. THUS
WE WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE 4.0 FOR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
WHICH KEEPS JULIO AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
JULIO CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS JULIO
GAINS LATITUDE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED AND
THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS JULIO BEGINS TO COME UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID LATITUDE WESTERLY WINDS.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 5 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO. THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SINCE SST VALUES
ALONG ITS TRACK REMAIN THE SAME OR WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH ABOUT DAY
3. MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND DAY 3 AS WESTERLY SHEAR
INCREASES AND SST VALUES ALONG ITS PROJECTED TRACK LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 155.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.3N 156.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 29.3N 157.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 30.3N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 31.4N 158.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 33.5N 157.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 35.4N 155.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 37.6N 151.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BURKE
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