602 
 WTPA44 PHFO 110247
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 500 PM HST SUN AUG 10 2014
  
 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF CLOUD 
 COVER IN THE EYE OF JULIO...TO THE POINT THAT IT HAS BECOME 
 INDISCERNIBLE. HOWEVER...2018Z/2331Z AMSU-B PASSES AND A 2229Z GCOM 
 PASS CONFIRMED WHAT AIR FORCE WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LAST 
 REPORTED BEFORE DEPARTING JULIO THIS MORNING...THAT THE EYE 
 CONTINUES TO PERSIST...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED IN THE 
 SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS 
 GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE 
 SYSTEM...WHICH HELPS TO EXPLAIN THE DETERIORATION OF THE SOUTHERN 
 EYEWALL. LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES RANGED FROM 4.0/65KT TO 
 4.5/77KT. WITH THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF JULIO SLIGHTLY 
 DEGRADED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 
 LOWERED TO 75 KT. 
 
 WITH JULIO NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE A THREAT TO THE STATE OF 
 HAWAII...RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE CYCLONE HAVE ENDED. 
 NEEDLESS TO SAY...CPHC IS GRATEFUL FOR THE ABUNDANCE OF TIMELY 
 IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT IN BOTH JULIO AND 
 ISELLE. IN ADDITION...AFTER PROVIDING DATA ON JULIO THIS MORNING... 
 THE AIRCRAFT COLLABORATED WITH THE U.S. COAST GUARD IN A SEARCH AND 
 RESCUE MISSION INVOLVING A DISTRESSED SAILING VESSEL CAUGHT IN 
 JULIO/S CIRCULATION.  
 
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. JULIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
 DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE 
 EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH 
 OF JULIO IS DUE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST 
 TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE BRIEFLY 
 REBUILDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. THIS IS 
 EXPECTED TO PLACE JULIO IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING 
 WINDS. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN 
 RESPONSE...WITH A JOG TOWARD WEST EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 60. 
 ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST IS 
 EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAYS 3 AND 4. THIS 
 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JULIO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 
 5...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. TRACK 
 GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THE 
 FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED THAT DIRECTION...BUT NOT AS SIGNIFICANTLY 
 AS EARLIER. 
 
 ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS
 ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE UNTIL DAY 3...DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY 
 WARM WATER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF HAWAII. DESPITE THIS...GRADUAL 
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM 
 MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS. SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY 
 DIMINISH IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER 
 PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR 
 TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z 25.5N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z 26.5N 154.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z 27.3N 155.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z 28.1N 156.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z 28.8N 157.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z 30.6N 158.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z 32.5N 159.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z 36.0N 156.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER BIRCHARD