606
WTPA44 PHFO 091514
TCDCP4
HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2014
ANOTHER 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT HAS JUST LEFT
JULIO. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO HELP US WITH
DETERMINING THE LATEST MOTION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A
NORMALLY DATA VOID REGION FAR EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE
SAMPLING OF THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO SHOW THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY
BE DECREASING. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 94
KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL YIELDS AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED
OF ABOUT 85 KT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY AGAIN
RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM AT SAB TO 5.0 FROM BOTH PHFO AND JTWC. THE
AIRCRAFT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS
INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS REASONABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE SAMPLING OF THE OUTER WIND RADII WERE AGAIN VERY
USEFUL...WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL EXPANSION OF THESE VALUES IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THE INTERMITTENTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE
IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
QUADRANTS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTHWEST IMPACTING THE SYSTEM.
JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 14 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST
RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS 12 HOURS
AGO. THIS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR GFDL...CONTINUES TO NUDGE JULIO
SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED
STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE STEERING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEN THERE IS SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
FROM 36 HOURS THROUGH DAY 5 COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS VERSION...
WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS OUTPUT
SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SST VALUES OF ABOUT 26 TO
27C ALONG THE TRACK. THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
PROVIDED BY CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES OF THIS PARAMETER STARTING
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE
WEAKENING COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE LATEST
TRACK STILL KEEPS JULIO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ALL
INTERESTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD WATCH FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF
JULIO THIS WEEKEND IN CASE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE
REQUIRED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 20.1N 147.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.9N 149.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 22.0N 151.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 23.5N 153.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 24.7N 155.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 26.3N 158.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 28.0N 161.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 29.9N 165.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
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