606 
 WTPA44 PHFO 091514
 TCDCP4
 
 HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP102014
 500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2014
  
 ANOTHER 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT HAS JUST LEFT 
 JULIO. THE OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO HELP US WITH 
 DETERMINING THE LATEST MOTION AND INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IN A 
 NORMALLY DATA VOID REGION FAR EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 
 SAMPLING OF THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO SHOW THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY 
 BE DECREASING. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 94 
 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL YIELDS AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED 
 OF ABOUT 85 KT. THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF CURRENT INTENSITY AGAIN 
 RANGE FROM 4.5 FROM AT SAB TO 5.0 FROM BOTH PHFO AND JTWC. THE 
 AIRCRAFT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUS 
 INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS REASONABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY. MORE 
 IMPORTANTLY...THE SAMPLING OF THE OUTER WIND RADII WERE AGAIN VERY 
 USEFUL...WITH SOME SUBSTANTIAL EXPANSION OF THESE VALUES IN THE 
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 
 LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL 
 CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THE INTERMITTENTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE 
 IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL BUT THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 
 QUADRANTS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DRY AIR THAT IS BEING ENTRAINED 
 INTO THE SYSTEM. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL 
 WIND SHEAR SHOW VALUES OF ABOUT 15 KT FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OR 
 SOUTHWEST IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. 
 
 JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 
 ABOUT 14 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE 
 NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO 
 NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST 
 RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS INDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE 
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS 12 HOURS 
 AGO. THIS GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR GFDL...CONTINUES TO NUDGE JULIO 
 SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED 
 STARTING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THE STEERING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 
 LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK 
 THROUGH 24 HOURS. THEN THERE IS SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED 
 FROM 36 HOURS THROUGH DAY 5 COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS VERSION... 
 WITH A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
  
 THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL 
 WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS OUTPUT 
 SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SST VALUES OF ABOUT 26 TO 
 27C ALONG THE TRACK. THE LATEST ESTIMATE OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 
 PROVIDED BY CIRA SHOWS INCREASING VALUES OF THIS PARAMETER STARTING 
 IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE 
 WEAKENING COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. SINCE THE LATEST 
 TRACK STILL KEEPS JULIO NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ALL 
 INTERESTS ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD WATCH FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF 
 JULIO THIS WEEKEND IN CASE TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE 
 REQUIRED.  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 20.1N 147.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 20.9N 149.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 22.0N 151.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 23.5N 153.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 24.7N 155.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 26.3N 158.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  13/1200Z 28.0N 161.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  14/1200Z 29.9N 165.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON