863 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 010245
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...BUT IT PERSISTS AND THE MOST RECENT BURST EXHIBITS CLOUD
 TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED AND HARD
 TO PRECISELY LOCATE...MAKING SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FAIRLY
 UNCERTAIN AND DISPARATE...WITH 00Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
 45 TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT GIVEN THE
 INCONSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
 SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS
 IMMINENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY
 FASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A
 CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.
  
 JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ROUGHLY
 320/9...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A
 MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST.  AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD
 DECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
 PENINSULA.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST TAKES JULIETTE AND ITS EVENTUAL
 REMNANT LOW ON A PATH THAT BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...ALONG THE
 LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO
 A HALT IN A FEW DAYS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 20.2N 114.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.6N 115.4W    40 KT
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.9N 116.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.8N 116.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB