417 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 301435
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007
  
 CENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION
 ESTIMATES WEIGH HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY.  SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE
 CENTER IS NOT WELL KNOWN...THIS ALSO LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE
 ESTIMATED INTENSITY.  IF THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 DEEP CONVECTION...THEN THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45 KT AS GIVEN
 BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EDGE OF
 THE CONVECTION...JULIETTE IS A WEAKER STORM.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
 IS SET AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE.  THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF
 OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
 SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE
 SHIPS LGEM GUIDANCE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE
 WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE
 AIR.  WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY WITHIN 72 HOURS OR
 SOONER.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 335/10.  JULIETTE CONTINUES TO
 PROCEED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.  THIS
 REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN
 THE PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...THE
 INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY
 THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
 THIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEP
 THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE STATIONARY IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO
 THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NOT FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE
 TRACK MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 18.7N 113.0W    40 KT
  12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.9N 113.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N 114.4W    40 KT
  36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 115.1W    35 KT
  48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    30 KT
  72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH