Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 417 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 300231
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIETTE IS AT
 LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT
 CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM
 TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
 APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
 KT.  THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR...WHICH IS ALLOWING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN
 SEMICIRCLE AND NONE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
 JULIETTE HAS JUMPED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS
 THE 6 HR MOTION FROM 18Z-00Z WAS 355/4.  SINCE THEN...THE STORM
 APPEARS TO BE MOVING 335/7.  THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
 A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
 FORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD
 STEER JULIETTE IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR AS
 LONG AS THE CYCLONE RETAINS VERTICAL DEPTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A
 WESTWARD TURN AND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE
 INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...BUT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST BY CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE
 WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
 THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO
 PERSIST OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY
 MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE JULIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 36-48
 HR...AND PROBABLY SPEED THE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45
 KT...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR.  MUCH OF THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN EARLIER DISSIPATION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE
 JULIETTE WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.2N 112.7W    40 KT
  24HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 113.8W    45 KT
  36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.3N 114.6W    40 KT
  48HR VT     02/0000Z 22.0N 115.4W    35 KT
  72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     04/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for JULIETTE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman