232 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 290913
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007
  
 AFTER GRADUALLY GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
 DAYS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
 PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING MORE PERSISTENT
 CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION STATUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 TO 35
 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE LOWER END OF
 THIS RANGE SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL PULSATING A BIT.  SOME
 STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
 RELATIVELY WEAK FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INCREASING SHEAR
 THEREAFTER WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON INTENSIFICATION...AS WILL
 COOLER SSTS BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
 THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT ABOUT 285/14 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
 WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE
 NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
 WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE
 RIDGE AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IN
 TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LATE
 IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
 LESSEN AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PULLS OUT.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0900Z 15.1N 111.1W    30 KT
  12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.6N 112.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.6N 113.6W    40 KT
  36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N 114.2W    45 KT
  48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 114.8W    45 KT
  72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB