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 835 
 WTNT41 KNHC 171449
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016
 
 Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of
 Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in
 thin bands closer to the center.  This is just enough to keep the
 cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory.  In the short term,
 the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and
 the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less.  The
 dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but
 it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take
 advantage of the more favorable environment.  Thus, the intensity
 forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours.
 
 The depression is currently nearly stationary.  A low- to mid-level
 ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during
 the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the
 eastern United States.  The flow between these features should steer
 the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for
 the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is
 similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/1500Z 30.2N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 30.4N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  18/1200Z 31.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/1200Z 32.2N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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