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 982 
 WTNT41 KNHC 141447
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
 1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016
 
 Julia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D
 Doppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast.  Since the
 system will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast
 and the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of
 days.  The official intensity forecast is close to the latest
 D-SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  There is a possibility, however, that
 the system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water.
 
 The center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast,
 although the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the
 initial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt.  The tropical
 cyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis
 of the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate
 that some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days.
 The official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and
 is east of the previous NHC track.
 
 The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
 heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near
 10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline.  These
 rains could result in flash flooding.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/1500Z 31.4N  81.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  12H  15/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  15/1200Z 32.2N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  16/0000Z 32.3N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  16/1200Z 32.3N  80.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 
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