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 350 
 WTNT41 KNHC 140226
 TCDAT1
 
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016
 
 The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
 east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
 accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
 the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
 the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
 about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
 afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
 system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
 being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
 the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.
 
 The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with
 the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right
 of much of the objective track guidance.  That trend is forecast to
 continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to
 the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the
 HWRF.  With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly
 shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change
 in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and
 begins to weaken.  Nevertheless, a small area of
 tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along
 the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.
 
 The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
 heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
 10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains
 could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data
 during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the
 curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a
 result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on
 Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across
 northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 30.3N  81.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  12H  14/1200Z 31.2N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  15/0000Z 31.8N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  36H  15/1200Z 32.1N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  16/0000Z 32.3N  82.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart/Franklin
 
 
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