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 666 
 WTNT42 KNHC 200234
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
  
 JULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
 THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A POORLY ORGANIZED BAND WELL
 NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE
 DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 SET TO 35 KT...USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. 
 ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR
 CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  JULIA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A
 REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER 25 C
 WATERS BY THAT TIME...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.
 
 A 1958 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 2307 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS HAVE BEEN
 HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIA...WHICH IS VERY
 NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
 055/11...USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
 MICROWAVE DATA.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
 A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS
 OF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      20/0300Z 35.2N  48.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     20/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     21/0000Z 36.8N  45.7W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  43.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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