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 542 
 WTNT42 KNHC 191458
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010
  
 JULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM
 BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO
 STRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD
 WEAKEN SOON.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN
 THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD
 HAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
 PATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 OR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.
  
 BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
 CENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  JULIA IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
 SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THE
 ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK
 FORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/1500Z 34.2N  50.3W    45 KT
  12HR VT     20/0000Z 34.9N  48.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     20/1200Z 35.6N  46.5W    35 KT
  36HR VT     21/0000Z 36.2N  44.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48HR VT     21/1200Z 37.5N  42.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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