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 705 
 WTNT42 KNHC 182031
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010
 
 SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
 JULIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE
 CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
 AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED EVEN THOUGH REPEATED
 BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
 OF IT. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE...RECENT PRESSURE DATA FROM A NUMBER
 OF DRIFTING BUOYS NEAR JULIA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA
 HAS LIKELY RETAINED ITS VIGOR.  BASED UPON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
 DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.5 AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND
 SAB...THE INTENSITY OF JULIA IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.  SHIPS MODEL
 OUTPUT SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM
 HURRICANE IGOR INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
 JULIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE COMBINATION OF
 THESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE
 WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  JULIA IS FORECAST
 TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE REMNANT
 CIRCULATION OF JULIA IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE
 IGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
 THE TRACK OF JULIA CONTINUES BENDING TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL
 MOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/17.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
 THE NORTH BY TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN
 NORTHEAST TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
 UKMET SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTER AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  
 THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...AND IT CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE
 UKMET.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z 30.6N  51.8W    45 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z 32.6N  52.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 36.4N  49.4W    30 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  47.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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