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 045 
 WTNT42 KNHC 181447
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS
 DISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
 THE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 ARE DECREASING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS WILL ALLOW.  A BLEND OF
 T/CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB REPRESENT THE BASIS FOR AN INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG
 SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IGOR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
 WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
 WEAKENING.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL-
 DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES JULIA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN
 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...JULIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW
 SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  ULTIMATELY...THE REMNANT
 CIRCULATION OF JULIA COULD BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AS
 IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT
 COMPARED TO BEFORE AND IS NOW 320/16.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
 GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A TRACK BENDING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
 LATER TODAY AND TURNING NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND A
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NEAR
 THE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
 BUT SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 28.9N  51.0W    45 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 31.1N  51.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  51.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 35.5N  50.3W    30 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 37.0N  48.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  43.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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