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 753 
 WTNT42 KNHC 180831
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010
 
 STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JULIA.  SATELLITE IMAGES
 SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
 NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
 ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...AND A BLEND OF THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM
 TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
 OF 50 KT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONG
 SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST.  JULIA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED COOL SSTS.  THE NHC
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY IGOR IN
 ABOUT 96 HRS.  
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS
 NOW 320/16.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A
 NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY...WITH A NORTHWARD TURN TOMORROW AS JULIA
 MOVES AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
 THAT JULIA WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM IGOR THAT THE LARGER
 HURRICANE WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF JULIA. 
 THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE RIGHT EDGE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE GFS.  
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0900Z 27.4N  50.1W    50 KT
  12HR VT     18/1800Z 29.5N  51.5W    45 KT
  24HR VT     19/0600Z 32.3N  52.1W    40 KT
  36HR VT     19/1800Z 34.5N  51.3W    35 KT
  48HR VT     20/0600Z 36.0N  49.0W    30 KT
  72HR VT     21/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY IGOR
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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