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 685 
 WTNT42 KNHC 172053
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
  
 JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND
 AT TIMES IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO
 BECOME EXPOSED.  USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT.  THE
 SHEAR...WHICH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW
 PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR...IS NOT LIKELY TO RELENT.  IN FACT...
 THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER. 
 THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND IS BASED
 ON A COMBINATION OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM
 MODELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
 THAT JULIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF
 POST-TROPICAL IGOR.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/18.  THE FORECAST REASONING IS
 ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A
 MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GETTING
 PULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR.  THUS...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST
 SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-
 NORTHEAST.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
 OFFICIAL TRACK AND GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/2100Z 25.2N  48.2W    65 KT
  12HR VT     18/0600Z 26.9N  50.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     18/1800Z 29.6N  51.8W    55 KT
  36HR VT     19/0600Z 32.5N  52.3W    50 KT
  48HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    45 KT
  72HR VT     20/1800Z 38.2N  47.2W    35 KT
  96HR VT     21/1800Z 43.0N  43.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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