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 415 
 WTNT42 KNHC 171436
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
 
 JULIA IS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS
 DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  USING A
 BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 75 KT
 FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
 INCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
 MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR.  GIVEN THE
 HIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT JULIA...THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN
 INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS LGEM AND
 SHIPS.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
 MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN
 THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF IGOR.
 
 LATEST CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT
 AND IS NOW 285/17.  THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED UNEXPECTEDLY FAR TO THE
 WEST...LIKELY BECAUSE THE STEERING EFFECTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
 TO THE SOUTH WERE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. 
 NONETHELESS...JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/1500Z 24.2N  46.7W    75 KT
  12HR VT     18/0000Z 25.8N  48.8W    70 KT
  24HR VT     18/1200Z 28.3N  51.1W    65 KT
  36HR VT     19/0000Z 30.9N  52.1W    60 KT
  48HR VT     19/1200Z 33.2N  51.7W    50 KT
  72HR VT     20/1200Z 36.4N  48.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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