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 938 
 WTNT42 KNHC 170248
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010
  
 THE EYE OF JULIA BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES
 FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF COLD
 CLOUDS TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE.
 THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY
 OF 70 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT
 JULIA WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
 WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR VERY SHORTLY.
 THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-40 KT WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
 DAY OR SO.  DURING THIS TIME JULIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
 SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN
 THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS.  IF JULIA SURVIVES THE
 STRONG SHEAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
 ENVIRONMENT COULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME
 ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN. IN 4-5 DAYS...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO
 DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
 
 JULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL
 MOTION OF 290/21 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED
 AS JULIA WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS
 AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE
 NEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH IS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF
 THE GUIDANCE...AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 23.5N  42.9W    70 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 24.6N  45.7W    60 KT
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 26.3N  48.8W    55 KT
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 28.6N  50.8W    50 KT
  48HR VT     19/0000Z 31.0N  52.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     20/0000Z 35.0N  50.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N  46.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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