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 725 
 WTNT42 KNHC 160255
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010
  
 JULIA IS COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND
 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE
 MID-LEVEL EYE ARE DISPLACED FROM ONE ANOTHER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB...T4.0/5.0 FROM SAB...AND
 T5.3/5.7 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
 TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD
 BE WEAKER THAN THAT.  JULIA IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A DEVELOPING
 CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS
 AND IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  JULIA SHOULD WEAKEN
 TO A TROPICAL STORM BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME SINCE THE SHIPS
 MODEL...FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED BY
 DAY 5.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE SINCE THE GFS STILL SHOWS AN INTACT
 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
 
 THE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING AT 315/14. 
 ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JULIA
 IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST...ALMOST LIKE A SLING-SHOT AFFECT. 
 JULIA WILL THEN BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH FROM
 48-72 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE
 EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR.  THE
 RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 AS JULIA GETS
 EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES JUST TO
 THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  JUST LIKE IN THE CASE WITH
 IGOR...THE ECMWF MODEL LIES AT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE AND CANNOT BE IGNORED. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/0300Z 20.2N  34.6W   100 KT
  12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.7N  36.9W    90 KT
  24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.6N  40.4W    85 KT
  36HR VT     17/1200Z 25.3N  43.8W    80 KT
  48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  46.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     19/0000Z 31.5N  49.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     20/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     21/0000Z 36.5N  43.5W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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