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 246 
 WTNT42 KNHC 150532
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010
 
 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY
 STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE
 DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED
 THAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE
 EYE.  A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF
 6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE
 CLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
 OBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE
 SHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
 UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0530Z 16.9N  31.3W   110 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W   120 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W   120 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W   110 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    90 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
  
 
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