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 392 
 WTNT42 KNHC 150237
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010
  
 JULIA HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE...AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION
 HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THAT FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...
 SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
 90 KT.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED
 CENTER ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOW A LITTLE
 ELONGATED AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
 HURRICANE...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 TO ITS NORTHWEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT
 MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE
 NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL
 GUIDANCE.  AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
 DRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT
 INTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
 BY DAY 5.
 
 THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED
 ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED AT
 295/8.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY...BUT IT
 SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AS IT GETS
 STEERED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A BLOCKING
 RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BY DAY 4...JULIA WILL HAVE REACHED THE
 SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE
 EAST OF IGOR...AND IT SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST THEN TO THE
 NORTH BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH
 DAY 4 BUT THEN WIDENS ON DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE
 WESTERLY COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST
 OF THE CONSENSUS TVCN ON DAY 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 16.7N  30.9W    90 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W    95 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W    90 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W    85 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    80 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG
  
 
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